Friday, February 11, 2011

January Deficit Report

Bloomberg tells us:

"The gap totaled $49.8 billion last month, lower than median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, compared with a $42.6 billion shortfall in January 2010, figures from the Treasury Department showed today in Washington"

So the deficit remains large enough to increase private sector surpluses enough for continued deleveraging and employment gains.  If maintained, current deficit of 9 to 10% of GDP should support top line growth of 3.5 to 4.5%...a fragile but improving recovery.

Details of the report show improving underlying strength of the labor market.  Total revenues were up 10% yoy, and individual income taxes up 24.6% yoy.  Keep in mind this is the first month of the Obama tax cut.  The labor market is stronger than recent payroll reports would have you believe.  A payroll surge is imminent.

Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Following are the details of the
Jan. budget statement by function from the U.S. Treasury.
*T
=====================================================================
                                                Jan.                  Jan.                  YOY%   
                                                2011                             2010                 Change       =====================================================================
Total receipts                $226.553           $205.239           10.4%  
 Individual inc. tax         $128.975           $103.523           24.6%  
 Corporate inc. tax         $3.645              $3.232              12.8%   

AP

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